En medio de una grave crisis sanitaria y económica y una gran incertidumbre por el futuro político, más de 25 millones de peruanos acuden este domingo a las urnas para elegir un nuevo Gobierno, que tendrá resonancias históricas al asumir sus funciones el día del bicentenario de la independencia de su país.
A pesar de la trascendencia de los comicios, se mantiene la impredictibilidad sobre los candidatos que ocuparán las dos primeras posiciones e irán a una segunda vuelta, ya que se da por descontado que ninguno superará el 50 por ciento de los votos necesarios para acceder a la presidencia en esta primera ronda.
En la disputa entre 18 aspirantes aparecen con mayores opciones Yohny Lescano (Acción Popular), Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular), Hernando de Soto (Avanza País), Pedro Castillo (Perú Libre), Verónica Mendoza (Juntos por el Perú), George Forsyth (Victoria Nacional) y Rafael López (Renovación Popular).
Los comicios han sido convocados para elegir a un presidente, dos vicepresidentes, 130 congresistas y cinco representantes en el Parlamento Andino.
Crisis y descrédito político
Estas elecciones se celebrarán en medio del escenario crítico de la segunda ola de la pandemia, que golpea duramente a Perú, pero también del descrédito que afronta una clase política acusada de velar solo por sus intereses y estar manchada, en muchos casos, por la sombra de la corrupción.
Aún es cercana la profunda crisis que el país enfrentó en noviembre pasado, cuando tuvo tres presidentes en tan solo una semana tras la destitución de Martín Vizcarra por el Congreso opositor, bajo la acusación de «incapacidad moral».
Con la dimisión en 2018 de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski por sus vínculos con la empresa Odebrecht, los peruanos han tenido cuatro gobernantes en el último quinquenio y han visto cómo todos sus exmandatarios tienen investigaciones o procesos judiciales por el escándalo Lava Jato.
El otro gran ingrediente de este cóctel de incertidumbre lo pone la crisis sanitaria que, según las cifras oficiales, ya ha dejado más de 1,6 millones de casos y casi 55.000 fallecidos en Perú, además de una grave situación económica, con incremento del desempleo y la informalidad, y un aumento de la pobreza a un 27 % de la población.
Poco apoyo ciudadano
Los comicios se celebrarán con candidatos con muy poco apoyo ciudadano.
Los favoritos cuentan apenas con una intención de voto en las encuestas de entre el 9 y el 12 %, mientras que el escenario apunta a un Congreso integrado hasta por doce bancadas y en consecuencia la posibilidad de una mayor inestabilidad política durante el siguiente mandato.
Analistas y expertos en estudios de opinión coinciden en que se está ante una situación «atípica», pero explicada por el «desapego» de la población hacia su clase política.
Con datos que cambian día a día y un porcentaje muy grande de indecisos, tal como remarcó esta semana el director de la compañía de investigación de mercados CPI, Manuel Saavedra, la «única certeza» es que «hay siete candidaturas que tienen posibilidades» de pasar a la segunda vuelta.
Las opciones de los candidatos
Los sondeos publicados antes de la entrada en vigor de la prohibición legal para difundirlos en Perú ratificaron un virtual empate técnico entre varios candidatos, con posibles victorias para el centrista Lescano, la conservadora Fujimori o el ultraliberal De Soto, según la empresa a cargo del trabajo de campo.
No están lejos, y mantienen sus posibilidades de llegar a la segunda vuelta, la izquierdista Mendoza, el derechista Forsyth, el ultraderechista López y el izquierdista radical Castillo, quien ha sorprendido a todos con su avance en las preferencias.
Castillo, de 51 años, fue el líder de una facción del sindicato de maestros que fue vinculada con el Movadef, el brazo político de Sendero Luminoso, y encabezó una gran huelga en 2017 que tuvo entre sus principales exigencias que se eliminen las evaluaciones que miden la calidad del desempeño de los profesores.
Todas estas alternativas se alimentan de la indecisión de los votantes, el fastidio con su clase política y el contexto de la pandemia, que han hecho que se presenten «las elecciones más fragmentadas de la historia peruana», en opinión del presidente de la empresa de opinión Ipsos, Alfredo Torres.
Por: Agencia
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