El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) pronosticó este miércoles que la elevada inflación se mantendrá en los próximos meses antes de moderarse a los niveles previos a la pandemia a mediados de 2022, aunque reconoció una elevada incertidumbre ante su evolución.
El Fondo indicó en concreto que prevé que la inflación en las economías avanzadas cierre este año con una media del 3,6 %, para luego reducirse de manera progresiva hasta el 2 % a mediados de 2022, indica nota de EFE.
Para las economías emergentes, el repunte de precios será más agudo, con una inflación media del 6,8 % a finales de este año, antes de moderarse paulatinamente hasta el 4 % a mitad del próximo, según la fuente4.
Este análisis forma parte de uno de los capítulos del informe de «Perspectivas Económicas Globales» del Fondo, cuyas previsiones macroeconómicas completas se publicarán el próximo martes en el inicio de la asamblea anual del organismo y el Banco Mundial.
«La recuperación económica ha alimentado una rápida aceleración en la inflación este año tanto para las economías avanzadas como en las emergentes, impulsada por la sostenida demanda, la escasez de suministros y un veloz aumento de los precios de las materias primas», señaló el informe.
Los economistas del Fondo prevén que la elevada inflación «probablemente continúe en los próximos meses antes de retornar a los niveles previos a la pandemia a mitad de 2022, aunque los riesgos de una aceleración persisten».
Numerosos países, entre ellos Estados Unidos, están registrando cifras de inflación no vistas en más de una década y ven crecer la inquietud entre los Gobiernos ante la posibilidad de que sea un fenómeno más duradero de lo anticipado.
Entre los factores que podrían contribuir a este sostenido repunte, el Fondo cita «el alza en los precios de la vivienda y una prolongada escasez de suministros en las economías avanzadas y en desarrollo, o presiones sobre los precios de los alimentos y depreciaciones de las divisas en los emergentes», menciona la agencia EFE.
Subrayó que los precios de los alimentos se han disparado un 40 % durante la pandemia, lo que implica «un enorme desafío» para los países de bajos ingresos donde esas compras suponen una gran parte del gasto de los consumidores.
Por: Agencia
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