Justo lo que no necesitaba un mundo vulnerable: un conflicto que acelera la inflación, remece los mercados y anuncia problemas para todo el mundo, desde los consumidores europeos a las endeudadas promotoras chinas y familias en África que enfrentan precios cada vez más altos de la comida.
Los ataques de Rusia contra Ucrania y las sanciones occidentales como represalia podrían no provocar otra recesión global. En total, los dos países suponen menos del 2% del producto interno bruto del mundo. Y muchas economías regionales siguen en buena forma, tras una rápida recuperación de la recesión asociada a la pandemia.
Sin embargo, el conflicto amenaza con causar graves daños económicos a algunos países e industrias, un daño que podría suponer penurias para millones de personas.
Rusia es el tercer productor de petróleo más grande del mundo y un importante exportador de gas natural. Los cultivos ucranianos alimentan a millones de personas en todo el mundo. Y los mercados financieros están en una situación precaria conforme los bancos centrales se preparan para revertir años de políticas de dinero fácil y subir las tasas de interés para combatir un repunte de la inflación. Esas tasas de interés probablemente frenen el gasto y planteen el riesgo de otra crisis.
“Yo no me dejaría engañar calculando sólo en función de tasas de PIB (…) especialmente en un momento en el que los precios de las cosechas ya son altos, la inflación ya es alta”, dijo Elina Ribakova, economista número dos del Instituto of International Finance, un grupo comercial de bancos. “Es un momento traicionero, dada la situación de la economía global”.
El ataque de Rusia podría frenar la recuperación económica europea disparando aún más los ya altos precios de la energía. Europa, importador neto de energía, recibe de Rusia casi el 40% de su gas natural. Cortar esa fuente podría golpear la economía del continente. Los precios altos del gas natural ya han subido las facturas domésticas de la calefacción a gas natural y de la electricidad generada por gas, lo que reduce el gasto del consumidor.
“Los precios del gas ya asfixian a los hogares y los consumidores, especialmente los hogares de bajos ingresos”, dijo Adam Tooze, director del Instituto Europeo de la Universidad de Columbia y que escribió un libro sobre la crisis financiera de la última década, “Crashed”, que analizaba las tensiones en torno a Ucrania.
El coste del gas ha obligado a reducir la producción en industrias que requieren mucha energía, como productores de fertilizantes. La inflación anual alcanzó el 5,1% en enero en los 19 países que utilizan el euro, la cifra más alta desde que comenzaron los registros en 1997.
“Escalar las tensiones puso en un riesgo mayor a los dos pilares de la recuperación del crecimiento esperada para este año: un repunte en el gasto del consumidor y un aumento de la actividad industrial”, dijeron en un reporte Oliver Rakau y Mateusz Urban, de Oxford Economics.
La amenaza a las explotaciones agrícolas en el este de Ucrania y a las exportaciones por puertos del Mar Negro podrían reducir los suministros de trigo en un momento en el que los precios globales de la comida están en su punto más alto desde 2011 y algunos países sufren escasez de alimentos.
Ucrania es el quinto exportador de trigo del mundo, según indicó el mes pasado en la revista Foreign Policy el analista agrícola Alex Smith, y muchos de los países que dependen de su trigo “ya sufren inseguridad alimentaria por inestabilidad política continuada o violencia abierta”. Yemen, por ejemplo, importa el 22% del trigo que consume de Ucrania, Libia el 43% y Líbano en torno a la mitad.
Además, ante un panorama de preocupaciones geopolíticas, los inversores podrían centrarse en tesoros y otras inversiones más seguras, aumentando el coste del crédito para negocios más arriesgados, señaló Michael Taylor, director gerente del servicio de inversionistas de Moody’s.
“Las promotoras chinas de bienes raíces se verían especialmente expuestas a este riesgo”, en pleno proceso por cubrir una gran deuda extranjera este año, dijo Taylor.
Los mercados financieros podrían volverse aún más caóticos si Estados Unidos recurre a lo que algunos llaman la “opción nuclear”: Vetar a Rusia de la red de pagos SWIFT, un servicio de mensajería que conecta miles de bancos y les permite transferir pagos por todo el mundo.
Eso aislaría a Rusia e impediría transferir los beneficios de la producción energética, que suponen más del 40% de los ingresos del país. Pero expulsar a Rusia de las finanzas internacionales también podría ser contraproducente, dañando a las empresas estadounidenses y europeas que hacen negocios con compañías rusas.
“Hay un riesgo para las finanzas globales tanto como para Rusia”, dijo Ribakova, del Institute of International Finance.
Por: Agencia
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