La economía de Brasil volvió a su nivel prepandemia al superar las expectativas del mercado con una expansión de 1,2% del PIB en el primer trimestre de 2021, cuando padeció la segunda ola del coronavirus, sobre el trimestre inmediato anterior.
El PIB brasileño creció además 1% durante el primer trimestre frente al mismo periodo de 2020, informó el Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística (IBGE) este martes.
Los economistas consultados por el diario Valor estimaban una expansión de 0,7% respecto al trimestre anterior en datos desestacionalizados, y de 0,5% ante al mismo periodo de 2020.
“Es un resultado muy superior al esperado. En el primer trimestre de 2021 no hubo estímulos fiscales y algunos analistas decían que tendríamos una caída brutal del PIB”, comentó Margarida Gutierrez, profesora de economía de la Universidad Federal de Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).
Tras el anuncio, la Bolsa de Sao Paulo marcó un récord al superar los 128.000 puntos, en tanto el real se apreció a 5,15 unidades por dólar, su mejor marca desde enero.
Rebeca Palis, coordinadora de Cuentas Nacionales del IBGE, subrayó que “incluso con la segunda ola del COVID-19, el PIB creció en el primer trimestre ya que, a diferencia del año pasado, no hubo tantas restricciones que impidieron el funcionamiento de las actividades económicas del país”.
Epidemiólogos, sin embargo, advierten sobre el impacto que esa reapertura podría tener en la crisis sanitaria y temen la llegada de una tercera ola de la pandemia al segundo país con más muertes en el mundo por coronavirus.
La campaña de inmunización en el país sufre frecuentes retrasos por falta de insumos. Menos de un 11% de la población está vacunada.
Brasil, con una población de 212 millones de habitantes, totaliza más de 460.000 muertes por el coronavirus, el segundo peor balance mundial en números absolutos. Es, además, el tercer país en casos, acumulando más de 16,5 millones de contagios.
A pesar de los números, el presidente de ultraderecha Jair Bolsonaro continúa cuestionando las medidas de protección y relativizando la crisis sanitaria.
Abril ha sido el mes más mortífero de la pandemia con 82.266 muertes, con más de 4.000 muertes diarias en varias jornadas.
“El repunte de los casos de covid-19 refuerza el escenario de una recuperación con interrupciones”, señaló el lunes la consultora Eurasia Group.
Desaceleración
El IBGE destaca que aunque el PIB volvió al nivel del cuarto trimestre de 2019, “aún está 3,1% por debajo del punto más alto de la actividad económica del país, alcanzado en el primer trimestre de 2014”.
El resultado sorprendente del primer trimestre confirma sin embargo una desaceleración del ritmo de la recuperación económica.
Después de dos retrocesos en el primer trimestre (-2,2%) y el segundo (-9,2%) de 2020 sobre los trimestres respectivos anteriores, Brasil registró una fuerte alza de 7,8% en el tercer trimestre y 3,2% en el cuarto trimestre del año pasado.
La expansión de 2021 de la economía brasileña, la mayor de América Latina, estuvo impulsada por los resultados positivos en el sector agropecuario (5,7%), la industria (0,7%) y en los servicios (0,4%), según datos del IBGE.
Matheus Jaconeli, economista da Nova Futura Investimentos, agregó que “la recuperación de la economía global también contribuye para el avance de la nacional, considerando la importancia del sector externo en el crecimiento del país debido a las exportaciones”.
En 2020, la economía brasileña se retrajo 4,1% debido a la pandemia del coronavirus.
La profesora Margarida Gutierrez, sostiene que “el resultado del primer trimestre del año eleva las proyecciones para el PIB de 2021 de 3,5% para algo alrededor de 5%. Si el ritmo de la vacunación avanza, podría dar más”.
Pero a pesar de las alentadoras cifras de crecimiento, el desempleo alcanzó un récord en el primer trimestre, con una tasa del 14,7% y 14,8 millones de personas en busca de trabajo. AFP
Por: Agencia
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