El anuncio de una nueva reconversión monetaria «es inminente» y la banca, así como las grandes empresas, tendrán un lapso de 90 días para ajustar sus sistemas a la nueva norma, indicó el economista Asdrúbal Oliveros, director de Ecoanalítica, en un video donde realizó un paneo sobre la situación de la economía venezolana.
De acuerdo con sus datos, la economía venezolana registrará una caída de 4 por ciento en 2021, la menor en los últimos 7 años, y una inflación de 1.500 %, que será la mitad de la registrada al cierre del año pasado. A su juicio, los sectores que están mostrando un mejor comportamiento son: Alimentos, Salud -tanto en producción como en venta de medicamentos-, Cuidado Personal, Tecnología, Telecomunicaciones, Servicios Profesionales y Retail.
La pandemia de COVID-19 es un factor relevante para explicar el comportamiento positivo de la mayoría de estos sectores, especialmente en Alimentos y Salud.
Los sectores que, de acuerdo con Oliveros, van perdiendo la batalla por la recuperación son: Manufactura, Construcción, y Agricultura y Cría.
«Los niveles de consumo no se recuperan», señaló el economista, quien advirtió que los síntomas de mejora que se pueden observar en la economía son parciales e incipientes.
Elementos clave
Para el economista Asdrúbal Oliveros, director de Ecoanalítica, hay tres elementos clave que explican un eventual mejor desempeño de la economía:
Una recuperación de los ingresos petroleros, que registrarán un alza superior a 50 % en el ejercicio. De acuerdo con sus proyecciones, Oliveros estima que el gobierno facturará unos 11 mil millones de dólares en 2021, tres mil más que en 2020. En consecuencia, el PIB petrolero puede registrar un aumento de 2 %
A pesar que el PIB no petrolero seguirá cayendo, en una medida que Ecoanalítica estima en -4,4 %, la recaudación fiscal del Ejecutivo tiende a estabilizarse, lo que muestra un mayor movimiento de la economía, aunque se mantenga la situación de hiperinflación.
La dolarización transaccional se ha estabilizado en un nivel de 65 % de las transacciones y los datos de la consultora revelan que en el primer trimestre del año, hubo un aumento de 8 % en el flujo de remesas.
Recomendaciones
Oliveros, en consecuencia, recomendó a las empresas entender adecuadamente los impactos de la devaluación en la estructura financiera, así como los impactos de los cambios de patrones de consumo, en función de ganar competitividad y una mejor determinación de precios.
Igualmente, recomendó evaluar la comercialización de productos importados, que siguen siendo más competitivos que los locales, aunque llamó la atención sobre el hecho de que este factor no opera igual en todos los negocios.
Oliveros insistió en que las empresas deben comenzar a colectar data útil del mercado, porque hay cambios significativos, de manera que deben tener un conocimiento más preciso sobre la elasticidad de la demanda en su sector, evolución del consumo, el funcionamiento de los esquemas multimoneda, y consumo, entre otros factores. «Estamos viviendo una etapa post controles de precios», precisó.
Hizo un llamado a no elevar los riesgos financieros, por lo que insistió en controlar los gastos, hacer un manejo proactivo de los pasivos, cuidar las relaciones con proveedores y desarrollar una estrategia comercial con un juicio claro sobre la realidad del entorno.
Por: Agencia
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