La amenaza de sanciones radicales no disuadió a Rusia de atacar Ucrania, y ahora los funcionarios del Tesoro estadounidense y sus contrapartes europeos deben cumplir su promesa de obligar a la economía rusa y sus elites a pagar el precio.
Las dos preguntas cruciales son si las sanciones serán eficaces y cómo medir su impacto.
Ahora que la inflación alcanza niveles récord, una pandemia dificulta la reapertura de los negocios y toda Europa padece una escasez de combustibles, parece difícil encontrar la manera de castigar una de las economías más grandes del mundo.
Una serie inicial de sanciones a blancos muy específicos y la amenaza de otras mucho más graves no disuadió al presidente ruso Vladimir Putin de anunciar la operación militar lanzada el jueves en Ucrania ni de advertir a otros países que cualquier intento de interferir provocaría “consecuencias jamás vistas”. Mientras Putin hablaba se escuchaban grandes explosiones en Kiev, Járkiv y otras ciudades de Ucrania.
Las sanciones anteriores a Rusia apuntaban a individuos y entidades implicadas directamente en las fechorías rusas. Maria Shagina, experta en sanciones en el Instituto Finlandés de Asuntos Internacionales dijo que las sanciones ahora deben apuntar de manera mucho más amplia a la economía y el sistema bancario para tener alguna posibilidad de afectar la conducta de Rusia. “En este momento la moderación no va a disuadir a nadie y en este momento las sanciones pueden cumplir un papel importante para tratar de disuadir una invasión mayor”.
La analista dijo que las opciones incluyen bloquear todas las transacciones con bancos rusos importantes para paralizar el sistema financiero y medidas contra las empresas de petróleo y gas.
“Si se aplican sanciones leves, esto envalentonará (a Putin) para seguir adelante. A esta altura debemos tratar como mínimo de dañar la economía”, indicó Shagina. “No puedo pronosticar lo que harán las sanciones, pero lo mejor no es sentarnos a esperar antes de reaccionar porque no está bien”.
Horas antes del ataque, la secretaria de prensa de la Casa Blanca, Jen Psaki, hizo una lista de los factores que observa el gobierno de Joe Biden, como las tendencias recientes de alza de los costos de préstamos para el gobierno ruso, la caída de la inversión extranjera en el país, la debilidad creciente del rublo y la reducción de las fortunas de los “superricos”.
Añadió que todo esto sucedió “antes de que se sintiera el impacto” de las nuevas sanciones que empezaron a aplicar Estados Unidos y sus aliados el martes. Después que Putin anunció el inicio de operaciones militares contra Ucrania, Biden prometió que Estados Unidos y sus aliados anunciarían “mayores consecuencias” el jueves contra Rusia por su “acto de agresión innecesario”.
Por: Agencia
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