El presidente de Brasil, Jair Bolsonaro, visitará Rusia este martes, en un viaje que enfureció a Washington en plena crisis entre Moscú y los países occidentales por Ucrania.
Para los analistas, el viaje del mandatario brasileño -que además visitará el jueves Hungría, liderada por su aliado, el primer ministro Viktor Orban- difícilmente podría haber llegado en peor momento, y responde a preocupaciones de política interna.
«El momento es muy malo«, señala a la AFP Guilherme Casaroes, analista político de la Fundación Getulio Vargas (FGV).
«Estará cada vez más tenso en la frontera» de Ucrania, donde el ruido de las botas rusas frustra las esperanzas de una desescalada.
«Estados Unidos presionó mucho a Brasilia para que lo cancelara«, señala a la AFP Felipe Loureiro, profesor de Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad de Sao Paulo (USP). Varios ministros también se manifestaron en contra.
Pero una cancelación «habría enviado la señal de que Brasil es un títere de Estados Unidos«, añade, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, ansioso por demostrar que no está aislado, «se habría enfurecido«.
La invitación de Moscú a finales de noviembre, cuando ya se asentaban las tensiones, será por tanto honrada, pese a la amenaza de una guerra en Europa: el presidente ultraderechista se reunirá el miércoles en el Kremlin con su homólogo ruso, un «hombre fuerte» a quien admira.
Bolsonaro dijo que viajaría a la capital rusa para «mejorar las relaciones comerciales» con su «socio«, «consciente de los problemas que tienen algunos países con Rusia«.
La potencia latinoamericana aboga por el «diálogo» y evita involucrarse en este conflicto con tintes de Guerra Fría. El sábado, al confirmar su viaje, Bolsonaro pidió «a Dios para que reine la paz en el mundo«.
La motivación del mandatario, a quien las encuestas auguran una derrota en las elecciones presidenciales de octubre frente al expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva -muy probable candidato-, es «electoralista», dice Casaroes.
«Último golpe diplomático»
Debilitado, Bolsonaro «no tiene prácticamente nada que mostrar después de tres años en el cargo; ir a Rusia ahora es para él un signo de grandeza«.
El mandatario «ha suscitado el rechazo de Estados Unidos, China, Europa«, añade Casaroes, que considera «sin precedentes» el aislamiento diplomático de Brasil.
El presidente brasileño apunta, por tanto, a «un último golpe diplomático«, indica el analista.
«Necesita afianzar a su electorado radical» acercándose a líderes autoritarios como Putin y Orban, mientras satisface al poderoso lobby de la agroindustria.
Bolsonaro también podría encontrar en Putin un aliado en una campaña que promete ser tensa, en unas elecciones en las que ha advertido que impugnará cualquier derrota.
Loureiro afirma que para Bolsonaro «el objetivo principal de esta visita no es económico sino que se relaciona con su intención de causar una disrupción en la elección en Brasil. Y sabemos que a Rusia le gustan los ciberataques y la desinformación«.
Según una fuente de la diplomacia brasileña, las discusiones se centrarán en las inversiones rusas en hidrocarburos e infraestructura en Brasil y el comercio bilateral, que aún es modesto.
Rusia suministra principalmente fertilizantes al gran productor agrícola sudamericano, y le compra carne vacuna y avícola, soja, café y maní, solo un 0,74% de las exportaciones brasileñas.
Brasil, miembro con Rusia de los BRICS (más India, China, Sudáfrica) se convirtió por un plazo de dos años en miembro no permanente del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, donde podría eventualmente ponerse del lado de Putin en la disputa sobre Ucrania, tras apoyar a Estados Unidos hace una semana.
«Canales bloqueados»
Si el tema Ucrania llega a las conversaciones, la visita corre el riesgo de convertirse en una pesadilla diplomática para Bolsonaro.
«Es impredecible y si dice algo que parezca apoyar a Putin traerá muchos problemas a Brasil, especialmente con Estados Unidos«, advierte Loureiro.
La relación bilateral se ha enfriado desde que el republicano Donald Trump dejó la Casa Blanca, y su sucesor Joe Biden todavía no ha hablado con Bolsonaro.
«Sus canales de comunicación están bloqueados«, señala Casaroes.
Gracias a su proximidad con Trump, el Brasil de Bolsonaro se había convertido en 2019 en «un gran aliado fuera de la OTAN«.
Pero la situación ha cambiado. Desde mediados de 2021, la misión de Estados Unidos en Brasilia no tiene embajador.
Estados Unidos, al igual que Europa, ya no espera mucho de Brasilia antes de la posible instalación de un nuevo gobierno en 2023, según analistas.
El Departamento de Estado se resignó a comunicar su deseo de que Bolsonaro promueva en Moscú «los valores comunes (…) de la democracia y el Estado de derecho«, y confió en mantener «discusiones posteriores al viaje con su socio brasileño«.
Por: Agencia
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