Tres décadas más tarde, el ex líder sindical de voz grave parece listo para una carrera más en el puesto principal de Brasil después de que un juez de la Corte Suprema anulara sus condenas y restituyera sus derechos políticos.
Su resurrección de las cenizas políticas prepara el escenario para una elección déjà-vu el próximo año, enfrentándolo contra el presidente de extrema derecha Jair Bolsonaro y dando a los votantes una opción entre las figuras más polarizantes del espectro político brasileño.
«Esto cambia todo el panorama», dijo Creomar de Souza, fundador de Dharma Political Risk and Strategy en Brasilia. «Obviamente todavía es muy temprano, pero esto estrangula cualquier impulso para un candidato centrista más moderado».
Eso debería adaptarse a Bolsonaro.
El ex capitán del ejército ganó en 2018 con promesas de eliminar el legado izquierdista del Partido de los Trabajadores de Lula, que lideró la mayor economía de América Latina de 2003 a 2016.
La retórica de Bolsonaro fue simple, enfadada y muy efectiva: la izquierda estaba apurando a Brasil en una calle de un solo sentido a la misma ruina que Venezuela, advirtió. La política en la capital Brasilia estaba podrida hasta el fondo. El país necesitaba un outsider de derecha sin matices como él, sin vínculos con los principales partidos políticos.
Pero como demostró el fallido esfuerzo de reelección del expresidente estadounidense Donald Trump, es más difícil ganar en una plataforma de drenaje del pantano cuando has pasado cuatro años a cargo del pantano.
Brasil está sufriendo, con un cuarto de millón perdidos frente al COVID-19, una economía en peores condiciones que cuando Bolsonaro asumió el control y se desmantelaron las operaciones anticorrupción. No está claro si la ira popular hacia el Partido de los Trabajadores sigue siendo lo que era en 2018.
A pesar de que aprovechará la oportunidad para luchar contra los errores del pasado de la izquierda, Bolsonaro no puede eludir ser juzgado por su propia actuación.
«Bolsonaro hoy no tiene mucho que mostrar para su presidencia», dijo Leonardo Barreto, director de la consultora política Vector en Brasilia. «El gobierno tiene que mostrar resultados para mantener a Bolsonaro en el poder. Esto es más importante que la presencia o ausencia de Lula en la carrera presidencial».
Para Barreto y muchos otros analistas políticos, eso significa que Bolsonaro puede perseguir una agenda cada vez más populista para apuntalar el apoyo. Las promesas de reformas económicas, que ganaron los partidarios de Bolsonaro de la comunidad financiera, serán archivadas.
También está la cuestión de qué Lula decide postularse. Su notable longevidad es un testimonio de un don para la reinvención.
Will 2022 verá un regreso de la marca de fuego izquierdista, que hizo su nombre perplejo en los pisos de la fábrica en la década de 1980, o el unificador de negociación que cambió camisetas de color rojo sangre por trajes a medida mientras calmaba los mercados después de una victoria aplastante en 2002.
Es demasiado pronto para conclusiones firmes, pero las encuestas electorales sugieren que Lula tiene una buena oportunidad, actualmente votando por delante de Bolsonaro.
ANUNCIO
En declaraciones a Reuters en septiembre, Lula bromeó diciendo que tenía «la energía de un hombre de 30 años y el impulso político de un joven de 20 años».
Es, sin embargo, la astuta experiencia de un político de toda la vida de 75 años de la que Bolsonaro debería ser más cauteloso.
«Es un juego diferente al de 2018», dijo Carlos Melo, profesor de política en el Instituto Insper de Sao Paulo. «Tendremos que ver hacia dónde va Lula».
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